Lobster pricing continues to tumble as sellers look to redirect volumes that had gone to ChinaClick here for trial access to our US wholesale seafood pricing platform, where you can find proprietary assessments for farmed salmon, crab, shrimp, scallops, farmed and wild groundfish/whitefish, live and frozen lobster, and octopus with more soon on the way.
Live lobster markets continue to react negatively to additional supply and ongoing tariff uncertainty, while frozen tails and meat are lower as well to get ahead of the new inventory during week 19 of 2025 (May 5-11), according to benchmark assessments released by Undercurrent News.
Live lobster
US wholesale lobster prices dropped again in week 19 by some $1/lb for the smaller sizes and a bit less than that for medium to larger sizes. “Lobsters are dropping like a stone,” said one buyer who reported a drop of a dollar since last week.
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The drop was smaller than in week 18 (April 28-May 4), and sources suggest that this is partly due to buyers sensing that prices could be leveling out. This has enticed processors to stock up, and some buyers are refilling live lobster inventories for long-term storage.
This continued slide is due to the glut of new Canadian supply, less than optimal domestic demand, and an import situation still complicated by tariffs. While the US can still import lobster from Canada at a non-tariffed rate, exporting to China is another story. Multiple sources confirmed that the US export market to China is “dead,” thanks to Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs.
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Canada’s exports to China, also hit by tariffs, have dwindled. Demand in the rest of Asia is quiet, and Europe is a “steady but small market.” At least one lobster company, Whitecap Seafoods, is looking to grow that market; however, with this week’s announcement that it would launch a direct cargo flight route to Spain, as reported by Undercurrent News.
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Others expressed skepticism over the degree to which Europe will ever be able to serve as a buyer for all the lobster that Beijing had absorbed. “I don’t think the European market will ever really explode,” said one American seller.
Coldwater tails and meat
Once again, broad-based weakness is evident for coldwater tails with price changes being led by sellers that have inventory to move ahead of the new season. While those in better position are trying to hold the line, the willingness by the other segment of the sell side is too much. There is still a willingness to negotiate on further transactions until the market finds itself in equilibrium.
The greatest losses were seen in the smaller-sized tails, from 3-4 oz to 5-6 oz, where most of the North American market lands. This is where sellers want to clear inventory aggressively.
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Last year, the US and Canada sent a combined 24,270 metric tons of live lobster worth $501 million to China, according to UCN trade data. This will result in more tails of the above sizes thrust onto the market.
The downward channel in prices remains intact given the same fundamentals as frozen tails. Sellers are flexible in pricing as they try to rebalance uncertainty in trade expectations and expect more meat thrust on the market with China still currently enacting tariffs on live lobster from Canada.
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Warmwater tails
Nearly the entire category is softer as the market tries to rebalance itself ahead of the new season in Brazil, trade flow uncertainty, and some pressure from North American weakness. However, the most pressing issue on the influencing list is the amount of risk tariffs apply after the 90-day pause, as the resource starts in Brazil, then later in the summer in other areas, and their impact on trade routes.
Importers want to mitigate having too much inventory after US Mother’s Day (May 11), and so are trying to move supply now.
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